Client Overview
A leading cosmetics manufacturing brand aimed to predict future customer demand to optimize inventory and improve supply chain decisions.
Objectives
- Accurately predict future customer demand to optimize inventory management. Move beyond manual forecasting and implement a data-driven, automated demand forecasting system.
- Empower data-driven supply chain decisions by providing real-time insights into future demand fluctuations and empowering supply chain teams to make informed decisions regarding production planning, procurement, and logistics.
- Create a competitive edge: Demand forecasting generates agility within the supply chain. The company can adapt production and inventory levels faster to respond to changing consumer trends and market dynamics.
Challenges
- Manual demand forecasting was repetitive, exhausting, and prone to inaccuracies due to data complexity and human errors. Manual forecasting also struggled to account for the complexity of data involved. These factors led to inaccurate forecasts, resulting in inventory issues like stockouts or overstock situations.
- Lack of integration with other systems limited the availability of valuable data for forecasting models. The system did not have access real-time sales data or data from marketing campaigns, hindering the accuracy and efficiency of the forecasting process.
- Untapped potential of big data: The sheer volume of historical sales data, market trends, and social media insights presented a daunting challenge. The current approach failed to harness the full potential of this “big data”. This valuable information could be used to identify emerging trends, predict seasonal fluctuations, and improve forecasting accuracy significantly.
Solution
We implemented a multi-model machine learning (ML) system that leverages a combination of ML algorithms trained on a comprehensive dataset to achieve highly accurate demand forecasts.
Key components of the ML system:
- Historical sales data: The system ingests vast amounts of historical sales data, including information on individual SKUs, base costs, and seasonal factors like holidays and special events.
- Advanced data integration: The ML system seamlessly integrates with other critical business systems, ensuring access to key real-time data influencing demand.
- Predictive power: The multi-model approach allows the system to identify complex patterns and trends within the data. This enables it to forecast SKU sales for each day up to 180 days into the future with exceptional accuracy.
Benefits
- 50% improvement in forecast accuracy: The AI-driven demand forecasting model consistently outperformed human forecasts by up to 50% across all SKU classes (top-selling, normal, and slow-moving).
- Optimized inventory management: Enhanced demand prediction enabled better inventory control, reducing overstock and stockouts.
- Improved decision-making: The accurate forecasting model provided valuable insights for supply chain operations, leading to more informed and effective decisions.